AFC Way Too Early Prediction: Seeds 5 through 7
AFC Way Too Early Predictions
Seeds 5 through 7
The AFC Wildcard spots are a bit confusing in a weird way. Unlike the NFC where there are still a lot of good teams in play, the AFC’s issue is the lack of talent in the mid-tier teams. There is only one division with two definite playoff level teams (AFC North), and the rest just aren’t there. So who’s gonna make the playoffs, and can they make a run? That’s what we need to answer.
You can see my 1 to 4 seeds here
AFC Record Predictions
Fifth Seed: Baltimore Ravens
Lamar and Co. will not be winning their division. After thinking, it was still hard to choose. But the Steelers defense nearly went to the playoffs with virtually no offensive help. Minkah Fitzpatrick, T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, and Joe Haden all played their hearts out. Even if the Ravens have the easiest schedule in all of the NFL, the Chiefs, Texans, Cowboys, Eagles, and the Titans in addition to both games against the Steelers can serve to be troublesome.
Still, you cannot count this team out. They are extremely stacked and have a ton of young talent on offense and veteran depth on defense. JK Dobbins is added to the backfield, boosting the #1 rushing team in the league even more. Baltimore set the NFL single-season rushing record last season with 3,296 yards on a league-high 596 carries, and we can only assume that with Dobbins it can be higher. Plays like the triple-option become even scarier. Marquise Brown comes into his second year healthier than before and will be even more explosive than the previous season. He was injured with a foot injury throughout the year. Oh yeah, I almost forgot. The reigning MVP is on this team. Oops. Lamar is going to have a similar year, with all his weapons having more experience.
Defensively, this team ranks very highly in the league. As of now, they have a top 3 secondary with Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, and Jimmy Smith at the corner spots, and Earl Thomas and Chuck Clark to play safety. Humphrey allowed a 68.4 passer rating when passed to, Peters a 63.4 passer rating, Chuck Clark had a 75.1 passer rating, and most astounding was Earl Thomas with a passer rating of 24.2. The group as a whole allowed the 2nd least passing touchdowns throughout the season. The firepower doesn’t stop there.
Jaylon Ferguson is poised for a breakout season. He was a player who helped the team at the line a lot and was second in QB knockdowns on his team. He is ready to prove himself as a LB. Then at the defensive line, we see the talent acquisitions. Calais Campbell and Derek Wolfe come onto the team and drastically improve the pass rush and run-stopping ability.
Overall: 11-5
Sixth Seed: New England Patriots
Can you ever really count Bill Belichick out? The answer is obviously no. After the offseason was passing by, it seemed the Patriots were bound to have a similar year to the Warriors. Stars were leaving or hurt, and a one year rebuild was needed. Now, of course, next season the Warriors are going to be great again. That would’ve been the Pats too, but Bill isn’t pausing his run for more titles.
Last night Cameron Jerrell Newton was signed for a one year deal. Veteran Minimum with 7.5 million in potential incentives. The former MVP probably could not have signed anywhere better. There is virtually no risk for either side, and there is huge potential. Newton is only 31 when most great QBs start to reach the peaks of their primes, and he’s ready to dominate.
Cam Newton is already the best QB in the division, and while his wide receivers may not be the best, this team has potential now. Stidham wasn’t super insane to me, but he has potential. Having him sit one year behind Cam is probably the current plan. One more year under another league MVP doesn’t hurt at all. Cam brings a huge explosive factor to this offense that was lacking last year. The defense is still going to be great. The Patriots Patriots used their first three out of 10 draft picks to get defensive players, adding more depth to an already stacked D. Even if they lost Jamie Collins and Kyle Van Noy, overall the depth is there.
The only problem is their schedule, which is the hardest in the NFL. Adding an early bye week to that can be hurtful for momentum. The Seahawks, Chiefs, 49ers, Ravens, Texans, Chargers, the Bills and Dolphins all seem to be worrisome games. All teams there are playoff contenders or teams who made major offseason improvements. But Superman Cam will lead this team to the playoffs one way or another
Overall: 9-7
Seventh Seed: Tennessee Titans
First of all, this is weird. A seventh-seed just doesn’t sound right to me.
Anyways, the Tennessee Titans are still up there in talent. Ryan Tannehill comes from one of the most statistically efficient seasons in NFL history. He completed 206 passed out of his 286 attempts. That’s a 70.2% completion rate. That’s insane, ranking 4th all-time for a single season. Alongside that, he averaged about 9.5 yards per pass (aDOT.) That ranked 3rd in the NFL. To continue that level of play is going to be extremely hard. His QBR was 117.5, the 4th greatest all time. That’s just insane. I don’t think he will be at the same level but he is going to lead his team in some manner. He elevated the whole team’s level of play, including Derrick Henry.
Last year, Derrick Henry led the NFL in rush yards. That’s already impressive enough but consider this. Not only did he miss one game, but he started slow. For the first 6 games, he had 69 rush yards per game. Not bad but not elite. After that point, Ryan Tannehill became the starter and Derrick Henry finished the season averaging 124.8 rush yards per game. Henry also led the league in yards after contact with 968 yards after being hit, while breaking the second-most tackles.
The Titans schedule has a lot of young teams they can take advantage of and their defense is still formidable. They can take advantage of this situation. Division play matters though. 2 other teams here are pretty equal to the Titans; the Texan, and the Colts. The Colts is the real worry though. The Texans are winning the division, so the Wild Card battle will be with the Colts. Rivers is washed though, and even though he has talent offensively, almost everywhere with players like T.Y. Hilton, Michael Pittman Jr, Marlon Mack, and Jonathan Taylor, he still just isn’t good anymore. He couldn’t take Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Melvin Gordon, and Austin Ekeler with an above-average defense to the playoffs last year.
Overall: 9-7